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Tomorrow's Europe, the first EU-wide Deliberative Poll

Method(s) Used


Name of person who posted the project:

Dominic Potter


Location of project:

United Kingdom


Date when the project started:

2007


Date when the project ended/project ongoing:

2007


Background to project:

In October 2007, the first EU-wide, indeed the first transnational, Deliberative Poll®, called Tomorrow?s Europe, gathered a random sample of 362 citizens from all 27 EU member states to the European Parliament building in Brussels, where they spent a weekend deliberating about a variety of social, economic, and foreign policy issues affecting the European Union and its member states.
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Conventional polls represent the public?s surface impressions of sound bites and headlines. Deliberative Polling® is an attempt to use television and public opinion research in a new and constructive way. The polling process reveals the conclusions the public would reach, if people had opportunity to become more informed and more engaged by the issues.
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Professor James Fishkin of Stanford University originated the concept of Deliberative Polling® in 1988. He has served as either Director or Academic Advisor for all of the Deliberative Polling® events conducted thus far. Previously he was the Director of the Center for Deliberative Polling® at the University of Texas at Austin.
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Purpose of project:

The object, as always in Deliberative Polling, was to estimate what the public would think about the issues if it thought, knew, and talked much more about them and how that would differ from what they currently think about them (what ordinary polls measure). This Deliberative Poll, however, was unprecedented in bringing together a random sample from all the EU?s member states. The public whose views were being measured was not that of Germany, France, the U.K., or any other single member state but of the whole EU.
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Project activities:

Deliberative Polling® is an attempt to use television and public opinion research in a new and constructive way. A random, representative sample is first polled on the targeted issues. After this baseline poll, members of the sample are invited to gather at a single place for a weekend in order to discuss the issues.
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Carefully balanced briefing materials are sent to the participants and are also made publicly available. The participants engage in dialogue with competing experts and political leaders based on questions they develop in small group discussions with trained moderators. Parts of the weekend events are broadcast on television, either live or in taped and edited form.
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After the deliberations, the sample is again asked the original questions. The resulting changes in opinion represent the conclusions the public would reach, if people had opportunity to become more informed and more engaged by the issues.
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The Tomorrow?s Europe deliberation, in a total of 23 languages, with simultaneous translation, alternated between small group discussion led by trained moderators and plenary question and answer sessions with leading policy experts and prominent politicians. The participants? were queried about their views on first contact, before being invited to the deliberative weekend, again on arrival, and again, finally, at the end.
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Project results:

Some key findings in terms of the attitudes of European citizens were:
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  • The total favouring a longer working life rose from 26 per cent to 40 per cent after the sessions. Almost 60 per cent accepted that pension systems were heading for bankruptcy.
  • Support for foreign investment increased from 58.4 per cent to 69.3 per cent, with the biggest rise in the ex-communist "new" member states.
  • In almost all cases, the opinions of citizens from "old" and "new" states grew closer after talking to each other.
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    As for wider implications of the project, Tomorrow's Europe shows that it is possible to bring all of Europe into one room. This can be approximated by selecting a truly representative sample of ordinary citizens from all 27 countries in the EU, providing them with balanced information about possible options for Europe's future and by bringing them together for several days of discussion in the European Parliament.
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Contact details:

The Center for Deliberative Democracy has full details about Deliberative Polling® at its website http://cdd.stanford.edu/
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The report of the Tomorrow?s Europe project is available at: http://cdd.stanford.edu/research/papers/2008/EU-enlargement.pdf
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