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Deliberative Polling

Brief Description:

A deliberative poll measures what the public would think about an issue if they had an adequate chance to reflect on the questions at hand. Deliberative polling observes the evolution of the views of a citizen test group as they learn more about a topic and is more statistically representative than many other approaches due to its large scale.

Description:

The participating sample is first polled on the targeted issues. After this baseline poll, members of the sample are invited to gather for a few days to discuss the issues. Balanced briefing materials are sent to the participants and made publicly available.

The participants engage in dialogue with competing experts based on questions that the participants themselves develop in small group discussions with trained moderators. After this deliberation, the sample is asked the original questions again.

The resulting changes in opinion are thought to represent the conclusions the public would reach if people had the opportunity to become more informed about the issues.

Deliberative Polling creates dramatic, statistically significant changes in views. Follow up studies, however, tend to show that some of these changes are reversed over time.

Deliberative polls are usually run in collaboration with TV companies, which then broadcast parts of the process, allowing the wider public to share the learning of the participants.


Used For:

Deliberative Polls measure informed opinion on an issue. The results of a Deliberative Poll are partly prescriptive - pointing to what an informed and reflective citizenry might want policy-makers to do.

Suitable participants:

The number of participants in a Deliberative Polling process range from around 200 to 600.
It is important that the participants constitute a representative sample of society; if a random selection process might exclude minority groups there is a need for a more affirmative method of selection.

Cost:

It is hard to estimate what a Deliberative Poll might cost in the UK as there haven't been any recently, but we estimate that running one will cost at least £30,000. Elsewhere in the UK and Europe there is more tangible cost data available.

This excludes expenses for the media and participants.


Time Requirements:

The poll itself is run over several days, a few months before the participants take part in a number of events (usually over a weekend) where they are polled the first time and where they can familiarise themselves with the issues.

Allow at least six months for setting up and running a Deliberative Poll.


When To Use / What It Can Deliver:

You should use a Deliberative Poll where you want to engage on issues where the public may have little knowledge or information of the trade-offs applying to public policy.

A Deliberative poll can deliver a statistically representative view of what the public's considered/deliberated opinion might look like as well as increased public understanding of an issue through broadcasting of the event.


When Not To Use / What It Cannot Deliver:

You should not use a Deliberative poll when the issue is non-controversial or where the issue and its relevant trade-offs are already well understood by the public.

A Deliberative poll will not deliver improved relationships between groups of participants, shared views or consensus, nor is it a good tool for making direct decisions with.


Strengths:

  • Combines the statistical representativeness of a scientific sample with interaction and deliberation;
  • Better demographical representation of population than similar methods such as Citizens' Juries and Consensus Conferences;
  • Increases public understanding of the complexity of issues;
  • Includes people that would normally not choose to get involved;
  • Demonstrates the large difference between people's uninformed and informed views;
  • Good means of measuring the diversity of public opinion.

Weaknesses:

  • Requires use of television to achieve its wider public awareness raising effects;
  • Does not provide qualitative information;
  • Expensive;
  • Less scope for participants to identify witnesses and question them or determine the scope of the questions than exists for some other approaches (e.g. Citizens' Juries and Consensus Conferences).

Origin:

Social Research

Developed by US researchers to overcome the often uninformed and fickle nature of opinion poll results.


Case Studies:


Related Methods


Restrictions In Use


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Further Information

For More Information Please contact

Center for Deliberative Polling
Department of Government
BUR 406
Austin, TX 78712-1087
USA
Telephone: 001-512-232-1676
Fax: 001-512-475-7928
Email: delpol@mail.la.utexas.edu
Web: http://www.la.utexas.edu/research/delpol/cdpindex.html

Please note that Deliberative Polling is a registered trade mark of James Fishkin and the Center for Deliberative Polling.

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