Delphi Survey
Brief Description:
A Delphi Survey is a series of questionnaires that allow experts or people with specific knowledge to develop ideas about potential future developments around an issue. The questionnaires are developed throughout the process in relation to the responses given by participants.
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Description:
Delphi surveys are used to gather collective forecasts about likely or possible developments in particular areas. The method involves a series of questionnaires.
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Delphi surveys can be carried out face to face, online or by post. In online versions participants are given their own login and password to access the site. This is useful when the participants are very busy people. The technique aims to derive the benefit of the opinions of a group of experts while avoiding the disadvantages of 'group think' and group dynamics where certain individuals dominate the discussion.
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The first questionnaire either asks the participants to individually identify issues and generate as many ideas as possible or to answer more closed ended questions such as the likely dates for specific developments.
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The second questionnaire anonymously feeds back all the ideas and forecasts sent in the first round to all participants. This questionnaire also provides space for participants to refine each idea, comment on their strengths or weaknesses and to suggest new ideas.
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Additional questionnaire then summarizes the input from the second questionnaire and asks for additional clarification, strengths, weaknesses, and new ideas. This stage can be repeated as many times as necessary until consensus on key points is reached.
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The end product is either a consensus amongst the participants on likely and possible future developments or a wide range of possible developments and their relative strengths and weaknesses.
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Used For:
Developing forecasts in response to current issues.
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Suitable participants:
People are chosen to participate in a Delphi survey, because of their expertise or specific knowledge of the topic area. This expertise does not have to be academic but could be the knowledge of an experienced service user.
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It is important that the participants reflect a wide range of views and perspectives so that there will be a meaningful exchange of ideas.
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A Delphi survey may involve between 10 and 50 participants.
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Cost:
Low-Medium
- As the Delphi survey is often run as a remote method it does not have costs for venues or transport. However there is the cost of sending surveys by post or setting up the survey online.
- It can sometimes be suitable to provide some kind of reward for the participants in a Delphi survey.
Time Requirements:
Medium
- As the participants in a Delphi survey are often very busy it is often necessary to allow them plenty of time (weeks if not month) to fill in each round of the survey.
- It is also often quite time consuming to remind and encourage participants to fill in the survey as there can otherwise be quite steep drop out rates.
- As the many rounds can be demanding on the participants it is important that they are aware of the time commitments in advance of agreeing to join.
When To Use / What It Can Deliver:
You should use a Delphi survey where:
- you want to gather a collective estimate from experts without the risk that certain vocal or influential individuals will skew the results,
- you want to develop a forecast around an issue which there is little information around.
When Not To Use / What It Cannot Deliver:
You should not use a Delphi survey when:
- you want to build relationships and ongoing communication between the participants,
- you want to make decisions directly
- the issue is already explored and the question is now in determining actions.
Strengths:
- Participants can fill in the survey in their own time.
- People can freely express their opinions and critique ideas as anonymity is maintained throughout the process.
- Discussions are not dominated by one participant's authority or personality.
- The series of questionnaires generates a much wider set of ideas than what each individual participants would generate by filling in the questionnaire on his or her own.
Weaknesses:
- It may be hard to coordinate and motivate the group.
- Results may be influenced by the bias of the participants
- Limited to forecasting future developments, unable to recommend action.
Origin:
Futures research
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The Delphi method was developed by the Rand Corporation for the American military as way of forecasting future technological developments.
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The Delphi method has been widely used in the field of science and technology forecasting to combine expert opinion on the likelihood and impact of technological developments, particularly on warfare.
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Case Studies:
Related Methods
Restrictions In Use
None
Further Information
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